Turkey, The Rising Economic Power 2015

The Middle East is sometimes viewed as an economic failure story. But at the Western fringe of that region, a new global economic powerhouse is rising - Turkey, the transcontinental country positioned strategically between Asia and Europe. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD786 billion for 2014, the nation opens its doors to investment across multiple sectors. Will Turkey continue to be a safe haven for investment and can it be a springboard into Europe and the Middle East?

Turkey's steady progression

The 1980's marked a turning point in Turkey's history. The liberalizing reforms by visionary Prime Minister, Turgut Ozal opened up the economy. Even though the latter years were marred by economic disruption, the Kurdish conflict and a banking crisis, Turkey's economy consolidated its gains after 2002 when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came into government. The AKP have since made concerted efforts to institute structural reforms, new fiscal policies and macroeconomic strategies to attract foreign investment.

Turkey's steady GDP growth - an average of 13 per cent (year-on-year) from 2002 to 2012 - is proof of its progress. As of June 2014, Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world and the sixth largest compared to the countries in the European Union (EU), which Turkey still does not belong to, but which it would like to join.

Growth potential

Global investors have every reason to explore this burgeoning economy for business opportunities. Some pull factors that make Turkey an attractive destination for diversified Foreign Direct Investment FDI include:

Strategic location

Turkey's strategic location - at the intersection of Europe, Central Asia and the Levant - provides access to major markets and 1.5 billion customers across Europe, Eurasia, Middle East, and North Africa. This makes Turkey a springboard for accessing a market worth approximately USD25 trillion. The country also plans to further develop three key hub ports to position itself as a leading regional shipping logistics center. The largest port project underway - the Candarli Port - is estimated to provide 11.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units upon full completion, at a cost of €910 million.

Turks: a young and skilled labor force

Turkey has a population of 77.7 million (for 2014), with 50 per cent of the population under the age of 31 - which makes it home to the largest youth population among all European nations. 610,000 students graduate from its universities and around 700,000 students graduate from its high schools every year. Around 50 per cent of these students are from vocational and technical high schools, positioning Turkey well for high-tech and R&D investment.

Robust infrastructure

Turkey's infrastructure plays a key role in maintaining strong growth. It continues to upkeep new and highly developed infrastructure in transportation, telecommunications and energy.

North of Istanbul, a new airport is under construction at an estimated cost of €22 billion. A bridge is under construction at a cost of €2.6 billion across the Bosphorus strait that separates Europe from Asia. Moreover, Turkey's extensive transportation system facilitates sea and land communication with other European countries.

At the same time, Turkey plays an important role as an energy transit partner. Geographically, the nation is located in close proximity to more than 70 per cent of the world's proven oil and gas reserves. Some projects undertaken to increase connectivity include the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline (2006) and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Natural Gas Pipeline (2007) projects - aimed to ease transit for energy imports across European nations. Turkey is located close to more than 70 per cent of the world's proven oil and gas reserves.

Renewable energy as a resource for Turkey

Turkey does not own any significant energy resources but its strategic location gives it access to more than 70 per cent of the world's energy reserves. Although 60 per cent of the country's energy consumption depends on imported energy, Turkey has the capability to reduce its dependency by using renewable resources to target 30 per cent of its total energy needs. In 2013, the World Bank Group provided USD1 billion to advance renewable energy and energy efficiency projects in Turkey.

Progressive investment climate

Turkey's reformist and pro-growth political culture keeps investors coming to Turkey. The country promises equal treatment for all investors. As of 2014, it took only six days to set up a company while it takes more than 11 days, on average, to do the same in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Tax benefits along with incentives for strategic and large-scale investments have succeeded in pulling in FDI. For instance, the Corporate Income Tax was reduced from 33 per cent in 2000 to 20 per cent in 2006.

EU Customs Union

Turkey is a member of the Customs Union with the EU since 31st December, 1995 which covers all industrial goods (except agriculture, public or services procurement). Turkey also has Free Trade Agreements with 20 countries. More Free Trade Agreements are in the pipeline. Most exciting of all, the country is pursuing accession negotiations with the EU. Turkish entry into the EU would create ample business opportunities for local and foreign enterprises within the nation.

Sizable domestic market

With a population of 77.7 million in 2014 and the GDP per capita of a middle-income country (USD 10,500 in 2010-2014), Turkey's domestic market is not to be sniffed at. The country is becoming more and more middle-class. Sectors such as telecommunications and banking have registered strong growth in both user base and revenues.

Broadband internet subscribers have increased from 0.1 million in 2002 to 39.9 million in 2014 and mobile phone subscribers increased from 23 million in 2002 to 71.9 million in 2014. Moreover, there were 57 million credit card users in 2014 when compared to 16 million in 2002.

Istanbul catches the eye of global investors

The city of Istanbul is particularly favored by investors due to its strategic location, well-established infrastructure and educated workforce. Istanbul received more than half of the total FDI projects directed to the country between 2007 and 2012.

As costs in Istanbul reflect the influx of FDI, investors have started exploring other cities such as Izmir, Ankara, and Bursa.

Borsa Istanbul (the Istanbul Stock Exchange) has ascended 30 places on the index of global financial centers since 2012. This improvement highlights Istanbul's potential to become one of the top 10 financial centers in the world.

As costs in Istanbul reflect the influx of FDI, investors have started exploring other cities such as Izmir, Ankara, and Bursa.

Measuring investment Risk

To some degree, Turkey still struggles with corruption allegations and occasional political turmoil, which raises investment risk. What factors should investors watch for?

Low domestic saving rate

In 2014, Turkey had the lowest savings rate among 14 large developing countries - currently equivalent to 12.6 per cent of its GDP. The reason is its huge current account deficit (CAD) which stood at USD70 billion in 2013. Turkey needs to ease overdependence on imports of investment goods to improve this.

Furthermore, the nation is highly dependent on international borrowing - any increase in borrowing rates is likely to have adverse effects on the country's economy. For instance, Turkish bank lenders suffered a substantial loss in May 2015 due to new reforms introduced by the government.

Inadequate Research and Development resources

Investors seeking to buy into innovation will have to look elsewhere, as Research and Development (R&D) capacity in Turkey is not very strong. The government has limited policies in place for research and development capacity building.

Political unrest

The political situation in Turkey has improved tremendously since the moderately Islamic AKP party came to power in 2002. The AKP government introduced several reforms such as the abolition of civilian-military courts, changes to the anti-terrorism law and greater empowerment of labor unions. However, the political instability in Turkey's direct neighbors still poses a threat to the stability of the economy. Turkey is right next door to civil-war-wracked Syria and Iraq. Within Turkey, tensions periodically flare up between the more religious supporters of the current Turkish government and secular Turks who are skeptical of the AKP.

Future outlook

Turkey's GDP growth rate is projected to remain steady at 3.6 per cent through 2016 - a far cry from the heady growth in its heyday, but still respectable for a middle-income country. Its liberal and attractive investment climate will continue to help Turkey to invest in sectors such as infrastructure, telecommunications and energy.

The government has set a goal of generating over USD250 billion in GDP by 2023 through investments in energy, transportation and information technology. Such projects are intended to attract big players to invest in the Turkish economy.

There is no doubt that Turkey is a large and important country that holds a great deal of promise as a market as well as an investment location. Its geographic location and skills base make it an excellent hub to export to the Middle East and Europe - and one that is deeply under-appreciated among the international business community. Turkey is an oasis of stability and development in a turbulent region of the world.

China's trade surplus - The Economist

Despite the continuing global demand for Chinese products, there is one more element that has been playing a crucial role in ensuring China's trade surplus in the recent years. It's the renminbi - the Chinese currency.

Being an export-heavy nation, China knew that it had to keep its currency lucrative enough for its trading partners. This incentivized China to keep the value of renminbi low and a managed float seemed to be a feasible way. Besides, this also eliminated the level of payment uncertainty from the minds of Chinese exporters and importers.

Benefits of the Managed Float System vis-à-vis the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime

· Ability to ease out the strict capital controls that were in-built into the system to facilitate a fixed exchange rate regime

· Accumulation of low-yielding foreign reserves (compared to other forms of domestic investments within China) due to more demand for renminbi was a major cause of concern under the fixed regime. Along with this, inflationary pressures were always prevalent. With a flexible system the impact of such issues can be reduced as circulation of renminbi within China can be controlled in a better manner.

· Huge exposure to USD (around 50% of GDP) as the primary foreign reserve means that even a marginal drop in the value of USD can be detrimental to the Chinese economy. With flexible regime, this risk can be eliminated to a certain extent as depending on situation, China can take up exposure in other non-US foreign reserves in a better manner.

The Ultimate Goal

From the above discussion it can be seen that China made a smart move to switch from the fixed exchange rate regime of the late nineties to the managed float system in 2006. In the process, renminbi appreciated 21% against the dollar before it was again repegged to the USD in August 2008 in a move to protect Chinese exporters who felt the heat of diminished consumer appetite amidst the global sub-prime crisis ignited in the US. As demand conditions started improving, renminbi was again moved to the managed float system. This move was also seen as a precursor to the People's Bank of China (PBOC) inching towards making renminbi a global reserve currency. Although this is far from reality, China has made progress in inking trade agreements with selected countries and launched a series of currency swap agreements with more than 20 central banks around the world.

Abu Dhabi Best Residential Locations 2016

Al Reem Island continues to be essentially the most searched location in Abu Dhabi for property buys and leases, following the most recent statistics. Beside from confirming Reem Island's constant rating, the fourth quarterly report launched by UAE primarily based property portal PropertyFinder additionally states that Reem Island has been gaining on reputation as well.


After reviewing roughly two million investors, the portal concluded 18.67% of individuals have been looking out to purchase properties in Reem Island whereas 18.41% of individuals had been trying to lease in the identical location. The group that topped the record for many searches associated to property purchases or leases occurred to be western expatriates who've just lately moved to the UAE.

Based on the report, the waterfront promenades, sea view properties and small-city attraction are a number of the components that make Reem Island such an exotic location for residential living. It presents a holiday-like escape to residents with easy accessibility to business infrastructure and social interactivity.

Whereas the best 5 areas, most searched, to lease property remained the identical in all four quartiles of the year, there have been some adjustments within the different spots on the checklist. As an illustration, Al Reef discovered itself rating approach good on the fourth quarterly listing after shifting up 5 locations from the earlier quarters, and Al Raha Beach discovered itself rating good on the listing regardless of not being on it in the past. Al Ghadeer nevertheless, lost interest by some followers over the months and declined in reputation. It ranked decreased within the fourth quarter after rating sixth and eight within the second and third quarters respectively.

Khalid Suleiman, Sales Director of Nationwide Middle East Properties, believes that there is a rise in the sale and rent prices throughout the UAE as a result of the broad restoration within the residential market over the previous few years. He has added some mid-market communities like Al Reef, Raha Beach and Golf Gardens in his checklist of examples.

As of now, properties in Abu Dhabi market appear to have rebounded with costs of properties going up by greater than 20%. New property projects are being launched every next week because the demand for actual property appears to be at its peak.

Khalid Suleiman listed number of locations which he considers to be among the best places to have a property rented or to actually buy one whether it is a home or an business office.

Top Eight Most Searched Locations in Abu Dhabi

Al Reem island

Al Reef Downtown

Raha Beach

Saadiyat Island

Gold Gardens

Al Ghadeer

Hydra Village

Khalifa City

With the publishing of this report, interested people thinking about purchasing or renting property in Abu Dhabi will now discover it simpler to make their selections. Other than these locations in Abu Dhabi, property costs throughout Dubai are believed to have gone down so those looking for houses within the UAE may make a research within the Dubai state as well.

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The Dying Dollar and the Rise of a New Currency Order

The dollar has been the World's Reserve Currency since the 1970s when the Gold Standard was abandoned by President Nixon. Since then, the US dollar is widely accepted across the world making it the world's leading currency. Today 43% of all cross border transactions use the US dollar. Furthermore, central bank reserves indicate that the value of the dollar is strong with 61% of these reserves being in dollars.

However, speculation has been rife over the past few years that this currency may die even as its percentage of the world's currency supply diminishes. This is backed by a report by the International monetary fund that shows how the dollar has drifted marginally to a 15 year low. What this means is that countries that have been willing to use the dollar are ready to adopt other currencies to do business.

There are a number of circumstances that set the ground for the collapse of the dollar among them an underlying weakness, the presence of another viable currency alternative for all and a trigger towards the collapse. Presently, the first condition exists as the US dollar has recorded a 54.7% decline against the Euro in as span of 10 years. During this time the US debt almost tripled. Analysts claim that this is a sign that the U.S. will allow the value of the dollar to decline so as to pay its debt with cheaper currency.

China is consolidating its share of gold with the hope that it will become the international currency in the near future. Gold is considered a better replacement to the US dollar because of its worth. As such, China is buying into the world's gold reserves in a bid to create a new currency.

Economists argue that should China succeed in increasing its market share in the world currency market, then there are high chances that the US dollar will be a loser. Even then, pessimists hold the belief that this can only work for the Chinese and not the Americans.

To understand this better, it is worth noting that the reason why the death is the dollar is inevitable is that an asset backed currency needs to replace it. According to financial experts, the biggest shock will be in the currency reset that will be followed by the Gold Trade Standard. Hence the return of the gold standard is near although it will be through trade vehicles as opposed to SWIFT bank platforms and Forex currency. Consequently, Gold Trade Notes will be used in the place of a letter of credit.

China's recent slowing of economic growth as well as potential credit problems has worked for the dollar that has gained strength over the Yuan.

China's recent slowing of economic growth as well as potential credit problems has worked for the dollar that has gained strength over the Yuan. In summary, the future of the US dollar is worth looking out for in light of the possible return of the gold standards. Ultimately, there is no need to panic and sell assets as economists will be available to offer advice on the best way forward for investors as well as speculators.

Samsung Galaxy S6 Flagship Line Rebooted

The latest flagship smartphone from the Korean electronics giant is a polarising proposition. On one hand, the latest Galaxy S6 eschews many features that Samsung fans have loved. These features have been touted by Android fanboys and girls to their iOS loving friends, for many years, as definitive advantages of using a Google powered smartphone. The features are: removable and expandable storage in the form of an SD, SDHC or SDXC card and a removable battery. In fact, with previous generations of Galaxy phones, Samsung even highlighted the ability to easily swap batteries on their phones, in advertisements that poked fun of iPhones.

Thus, it comes as a great loss to diehard Samsung fans who also liked the idea of being able to swap out a dying battery with a fully charged one in less than a minute. Also gone is the ability to buy replacement Samsung Galaxy S6 covers and swap them with the ugly covers that Galaxy phones shipped with. In the past, this was the only way to cover up the hideous, fake leather effect backs on Galaxy phones such as the Note. On some models, Samsung truly got carried away and even added fake stitching that was just moulded plastic.

But all that is gone with the new S6. You can still buy Samsung Galaxy S6 Cases if you want to add a little style and protection to your phone but you no longer have to do it just to hide the ugly plastic back or the tacky metallic accents on your phone. This is because every shiny metal accent on the latest S is actually metal and not just plastic with a thin layer of silvery paint on top of it. While the Galaxy has lost a removal battery and expandable memory, what it has gained is a sexy metal chassis that makes it stronger and thinner on the inside and much better looking on the outside.

The metal chassis also means that with wear and tear, there is no paint that will fade off the S6 like it did with previous generation Galaxy phones, so the latest version should keep looking as good as new for much longer. Samsung may have roused the ire of many of its long time fans but most other smartphone makers are also moving in the same direction. The trend now is towards manufacturers making thinner phones that lose the removal memory card slots and the removable batteries in the interest of making thinner, sturdier phones. Apple has had huge success with its iPhone line despite the fact that it has never ever had either of these two features and now Android phone makers are realising that they can get away with it as well, as long as the phones make up for the loss of features, with other advantages.

US, Iran and ISIS

With respect to the continuing diplomatic and economic battlefield between the west and Iran comes another unspoken issue and possibly never discussed: with the possibility of the lifting of sanctions, how will this new relationship impact the battle against ISIS? Iran has invested considerable resources supporting the Shiite militia while the US has supported the Iraqi government forces with few, if any, direct coordinated military efforts.

What happens on the economic front won't necessarily translate on the same level of cooperation and coordination on the battle front. Nonetheless it will be more difficult for ISIS to play one side against the other. In fact ISIS has more to worry about Iran than the US.

Overseas military adventures are an exceptionally expensive endeavor for any country, Iran is no exception. Which begs the question as to how Iran managed to project their military efforts under tough sanctions?

With the lifting of sanctions, Iran will have access to critical international financing which will be enhanced through the sale of oil and natural gas. Iran can then increase their military efforts in the region by providing the Shiite militias more sophisticated weaponry with greater firepower. Ironically in this role Iran may reluctantly become the US' proxy. For the US this is a rather inconvenient arrangement yet more politically acceptable than sending in US ground troops.

It's a similar approach and concept to how the Allies and Soviet Union battled Nazi Germany. Neither side was fond of the other, yet the war required a certain level of coordination to defeat an implacable enemy. The US provided Uncle Joe Stalin substantial amounts of materiel when the Soviets factories were in ruins.

In the never ending Iraq campaign, the US might provide more satellite intelligence and coordinated air strikes supporting ground based Iranian-led Shiite assaults to retake ISIS-occupied provinces, cities and towns. With respect to military operational performance, the Shiite militias are highly motivated and are superb ground fighters who lack air support. The Iraqi government forces have poor ground fighters who require extensive air support.

Particularly with any major historical agreement there are always embedded secret agreements and understandings with respect to topics outside the scope of the signed documentation. Iran's presence in the Middle East has been a vexing issue not only for the US but many Arab countries especially Saudi Arabia. The key to whether such agreements were made is to be vigilant of any change in Iran's movement in the region, regardless how subtle. Despite all the hard-liner posturing, it's always the specific acts after such agreements are made that confirm whether unwritten mutual understandings are being carried out.